A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
