Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
